ISSN 0798 1015
ISSN 0798 1015
Vol. 39 (Nº36) Year 2018. Page 12
Ekaterina DOROSHENKO 1; Zinaida KOSTINA 2; Galina MASHENTSEVA 3
Received: 06/03/2018 • Approved: 01/05/2018
ABSTRACT: The level of the media advertising industry development is closely related to the level of the regional economic development – in particular, to the gross regional product volume, level of purchasing power and general living standards. Previously, the author made quite successful attempts to prove the existence of the direct correlation dependence between the volume of the Russian advertising market and two global indices: the region's investment attractiveness index and the investment risk index. A hypothesis about the connection between the volume of Russian advertising market and the Brent crude oil barrel price is put forward within this article. The dependence is justified using the correlation and regression analysis. As a result, the linear regression equation of linear type was built, which describes the dependence found. |
RESUMEN: El nivel de desarrollo de la industria de publicidad en medios está estrechamente relacionado con el nivel de desarrollo económico regional, en particular, con el volumen bruto de productos regionales, el nivel de poder adquisitivo y los estándares generales de vida. Anteriormente, el autor realizó intentos bastante exitosos para demostrar la existencia de una dependencia de correlación directa entre el volumen del mercado publicitario ruso y dos índices globales: el índice de atractivo de inversión de la región y el índice de riesgo de inversión. En este artículo se presenta una hipótesis sobre la conexión entre el volumen del mercado publicitario ruso y el precio del barril de petróleo Brent. La dependencia se justifica utilizando el análisis de correlación y regresión. Como resultado, se construyó la ecuación de regresión lineal de tipo lineal, que describe la dependencia encontrada. |
The advertising market is subject to the multitier dependence on the economy state, especially the consumer market, thus encouraging the multilateral communication with business, consumers, media and the sociocultural environment. The advertising market seeks to maintain its function in the economy crisis, adapting quickly to the changing conditions of the business environment and paying particular attention to fluctuations in supply and decline in effective demand (Nazarov 2011; XXth International research-to-practice conference, 2016; XIXth International research and methodological conference, 2015).
The very idea of the market economy initially assumes constant competition between the market participants. Aggravating competition among producing advertisers is a challenge for the media advertising industry, which forces to be in a constant fighting shape, seek and find new approaches and ways to solve the problems of customers. A certain degree of combat readiness of the advertising industry is also added by the rapid transformation of the media landscape, caused by the rapid growth of online communications, their demand from advertisers and consumers of advertising, as well as reluctance of traditional media to lose the customary leading positions in the advertising distribution. All this encourages the dynamics of the advertising industry advancement and enriches it with new practices, methods, techniques and technologies. Previously, the author (Doroshenko, Gushchina and Chesnokova 2013) proposed the direction of improving marketing technologies for the Russian advertising market, and (Mashentseva, Doroshenko and Goncharova, 2016) put forward and justified the hypothesis of a statistical relationship between the level of the country's GDP and the volume of advertising market.
2015 was one of the most difficult years in modern history of the Russian economy. Some experts described the combination of negative circumstances for the Russian economy as an "ideal storm": sharp drop in oil prices was complicated by the ongoing sanctions war, the problem of corporate debt aggravated and became a threat to the entire Russian economy in the conditions of national currency depreciation against the world currencies. The general complication of foreign policy relations between Russia and a number of foreign countries also had a negative impact on the Russian economy.
Processes in the oil market have never been analyzed before in the advertising market valuation, because though a connection between oil prices and advertising sales certainly exists, it seemed very indirect until the last moment. Russia remains a country with a predominantly raw materials export structure. The fall in energy prices, followed by other raw materials, which began back in 2014 and continued in 2015, led to a significant weakening of the currency inflow to the country and the national currency depreciation. It is clear that when the advertising market is valuated in dollars, it results in significantly smaller volumes due to the rate fluctuation (Directory AKAR – 2014, 2014).
A correlation and regression analysis is used within this article to justify the relationship between the volume of Russian advertising market and change in oil prices. The analysis consists in building and analyzing the economic and mathematical model as a regression equation (correlation relationship), which describes the dependence of the characteristic on the factors that determine it. 2000 to 2015 were taken as years of the period under study. The author used Statistica 6.0 software to find empirical coefficients and empirical regression equation.
The fall in oil prices became the main threat to the Russian budget and Russian business in 2015: while in 2014 the average price for Brent crude oil was $99 per barrel, in 2015 it was $54. Although the authors estimate the state of the oil market in 2015, they must note that the downward trend also continued in the first quarter of 2016, when the price fell as low as below $30 (Table 1). Figure 1 shows the dynamics of changes in the volume of Russian advertising market and oil prices.
Table 1
Dependence between the volume of Russian advertising
market and the average annual oil barrel price
Year |
Average annual oil barrel price, $ (Brent crude oil barrel prices, n. d.) |
Volume of Russian advertising market, $ bln (Veselov 2015; Veselov 2014) |
2000 |
28.3075 |
0.9 |
2001 |
24.41167 |
1.3 |
2002 |
24.99833 |
1.9 |
2003 |
28.8525 |
2.4 |
2004 |
38.2975 |
3.3 |
2005 |
54.43417 |
4.6 |
2006 |
65.39 |
6.1 |
2007 |
72.7125 |
8.5 |
2008 |
97.66 |
10.3 |
2009 |
61.86083 |
5.9 |
2010 |
79.63167 |
7.2 |
2011 |
110.9517 |
9 |
2012 |
111.9583 |
9.8 |
2013 |
108.845 |
10.6 |
2014 |
98.94417 |
9.2 |
2015 |
52.39917 |
5.3 |
-----
Figure 1
Dynamics of changes in the volume of Russian advertising
market ($ bln) and the Brent crude oil barrel prices ($)
Directory AKAR - 2014. (2014). Moscow: Association of Communication Agencies of Russia. http://www.akarussia.ru/files/docs/AKAR_sprav_interact.pdf (accessed October 30, 2017).
Doroshenko E.I., Gushchina E.G. and Chesnokova Zh.A. (2013). Improvement of Marketing Technologies for Russian Advertising Market. Research World Applied Sciences Journal, 24(9), 1206-1209.
Eliseeva I.I. (2007). Ekonometrika [Econometrics]: textbook (2nd ed.). Moscow: Finance and statistics, pp. 177.
Mashentseva, G.A., Doroshenko, E.I. and Goncharova, E.B. (2016). Econometric dependence of the volume of the European advertising market on the investment attractiveness of a region. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce (JIBC), 21, 1-10
Nazarov, N.N. (2011). Mirovyye mediareklamnyye rynki v usloviyakh ekonomicheskogo krizisa [Global media advertising markets in the conditions of economic crisis]. Theory and practice of media advertising studies (to the 15th anniversary of the Analytical center “Video International”). Analytical center “Video International”. Moscow: SRICC “Voskhod – A” LLC, pp. 62.
Tseny za barrel nefti marki Brent [Brent crude oil barrel prices]. (n. d.). http://worldtable.info/yekonomika/cena-na-neft-marki-brent-tablica-s-1986-po-20.html (accessed October 24, 2017).
Veselov S.V. (2014). Rossiyskiy reklamnyy yezhegodnik [Russian advertising yearbook]. Moscow: LLC "NSC Plus"
Veselov S.V. (2015). Rossiyskiy reklamnyy yezhegodnik [Russian advertising yearbook]. Moscow: LLC "NSC Plus"
XIX Mezhdunarodnaya nauchno-metodicheskaya konferentsiya zaveduyushchikh kafedrami marketinga, reklamy i svyazey s obshchestvennostyu, dizayna i smezhnykh napravleniy [XIXth International research and methodological conference of Heads of the Departments of Marketing, Advertising and Public Relations, Design and related specializations]. Collection of materials; In Evstafiev V.A. (eds.). (2015). Moscow: Publishing house of the Moscow Humanitarian University, pp. 404.
XX Mezhdunarodnaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferentsiya zaveduyushchikh kafedrami marketinga, reklamy, svyazey s obshchestvennostyu, dizayna i smezhnykh napravleniy [XXth International research-to-practice conference of Heads of the Departments of Marketing, Advertising, Public Relations, Design and related specializations]. Collection of materials: In Evstafiev V.A. (eds.). (2016). Moscow: Publ. “Econ-Inform”, pp. 375
1. The Kamyshin Tecnological Institute (branch) of the Volgograd State Technical University Kamyshin, Russia, 403874, Volgograd Region, Kamyshin, Lenin Street, 6a. E-mail: ekaterina.i.doroshenko@mail.ru
2. The Kamyshin Tecnological Institute (branch) of the Volgograd State Technical University Kamyshin, Russia, 403874, Volgograd Region, Kamyshin, Lenin Street, 6a. E-mail: Kostina@kti.ru
3. The Kamyshin Tecnological Institute (branch) of the Volgograd State Technical University Kamyshin, Russia, 403874, Volgograd Region, Kamyshin, Lenin Street, 6a. E-mail: mashenceva@kti.ru